CO2 — Barking Up the Wrong Tree

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See the English version of this post below the German text. Siehe englische Version unterhalb des deutschen Textes.

In kürzlich veröffentlichen Posts habe ich darauf hingewiesen, dass die Konzentration von CO2 in der Atmosphäre keine Korrelation mit globalen Temperaturen aufweist, welche es gestatten würde, einen kausalen Zusammenhang der Art wie sie von Vertretern der Theorie von der katastrophalen anthropogenen Erderwärmung verfochten wird, zu postulieren. 

Siehe meine Posts Emissions Mania, Wrong Paradigm — Interview with Geologist Ian Plimer und Deniers and Null-Hypotheses.

Die Befunde häufen sich, wonach die atmosphärische CO2 Konzentration als klimabeeinflussender Faktor bestenfalls unbedeutend ist. Dazu werden immer mehr Erklärungsansätze – ohne CO2 auskommend – vorgelegt, die empirischen Prüfungen besser standhalten, als die politisch bevorzugten CO2-zentrischen Modelle.

Ich warte immer noch darauf, dass meine politisch korrekten deutschen Landsleute in die Luft springen vor ekstatischer Erleichterung angesichts der vielen Befunde, wonach CO2-Emissionen nicht die befürchteten Auswirkungen auf das Klima haben und letzteres Mustern natürlicher Variabilität folgt, die keinen Anlass zur Beunruhigung geben.

Es scheint meine Landsleute nur zu erbosen, wenn ihnen berichtet wird, dass die Welt nun doch nicht untergeht.

Offenbar hat Mark Twain Recht mit seiner Behauptung, dass es schwieriger ist jemanden davon zu überzeugen, dass er betrogen worden ist, als ihn zu betrügen.

Siehe unterhalb des folgenden englischen Texts Zitate aus einer weitere Studie der entwarnenden Art:

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In recent posts, I have repeatedly mentioned that CO2 concentrations are lacking a correlation with global temperatures that would support a causal connection of the kind asserted by followers of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW).

See my posts Emissions Mania, Wrong Paradigm — Interview with Geologist Ian Plimer and Deniers and Null-Hypotheses.

There is mounting further evidence of the insignificance of atmospheric CO2 concentration plus alternative explanations of temperature trends with different drivers than CO2.

I am still waiting for my politically correct fellow Germans to jump up in ecstatic relief in view of increasing evidence that human CO2 emissions play no role in global temperature trends, and that the latter largely follow patterns of natural variability giving no cause for alarm.

It seems to make them only angry to be told the world is not perishing.

Apparently, Mark Twain is right in claiming that it is harder to make a person admit that she has been fooled than to actually fool her.

Write Prof. Davis et al.,

[T]he contemporary global warming increase of ~0.8 °C recorded since 1850 has been attributed widely to anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the atmosphere. Recent research has shown, however, that the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere has been decoupled from global temperature for the last 425 million years [Davis, 2017] owing to well-established diminishing returns in marginal radiative forcing (ΔRF) as atmospheric CO₂ concentration increases. Marginal forcing of temperature from increasing CO₂ emissions declined by half from 1850 to 1980, and by nearly two-thirds from 1850 to 1999 [Davis, 2017]. Changes in atmospheric CO₂ therefore affect global temperature weakly at most.

The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis has been embraced partly because “…there is no convincing alternative explanation…” [USGCRP, 2017] (p. 12).

The ACO provides a possible alternative explanation in the form of a natural climate cycle that arises in Antarctica, propagates northward to influence global temperature, and peaks on a predictable centennial timetable.

Abstract:

We report a previously-unexplored natural temperature cycle recorded in ice cores from Antarctica—the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO)—that has oscillated for at least the last 226 millennia. Here we document the properties of the ACO and provide an initial assessment of its role in global climate. We analyzed open-source databases of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen as proxies for paleo-temperatures. We find that centennial-scale spectral peaks from temperature-proxy records at Vostok over the last 10,000 years occur at the same frequencies (±2.4%) in three other paleoclimate records from drill sites distributed widely across the East Antarctic Plateau (EAP), and >98% of individual ACOs evaluated at Vostok match 1:1 with homologous cycles at the other three EAP drill sites and conversely.

The period and amplitude of ACOs oscillate in phase with glacial cycles and related surface insolation associated with planetary orbital forces. We conclude that the ACO: encompasses at least the EAP; is the proximate source of D-O oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore affects global temperature; propagates with increased velocity as temperature increases; doubled in intensity over geologic time; is modulated by global temperature variations associated with planetary orbital cycles; and is the probable paleoclimate precursor of the contemporary Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Properties of the ACO/AAO are capable of explaining the current global warming signal.

The source.