Saturday 30 June 2018

A Second Best Argument in Favour of Staying in the EU


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I had made this comment here.

You fear the anti-democratic forces in your country? What could be more anti-democratic than the EU? You seem to be inclined toward staying in the EU out of fear that the EU will retaliate upon your country for leaving the "club". I dare not judge the economic wisdom of bowing to this threat, but it is an indubitable sign that membership is based on repression and that this Europe is all about bullies versus underdogs.

For Luboš Motl reply see below (with my responses highlighted in blue.)

Dear Georg, first, I think that there have been more undemocratic entities than the EU, such as the USSR and Nazi Germany. They have also repressed their constituents more brutally than the EU does. More nondemocratic things may exist on the future European continent, too.

Ad 1: The presence of even more undemocratic regimes is irrelevant in assessing the anti-democratic nature of the EU. Joining the EU has been a major blow to democracy in the member states. We have had high and satisfactory democratic standards before joining the EU. It is our duty and a matter of prudence to restore democracy in our countries. The EU is the result of a political Minsky-effect (stability creating instability). People have been well served by their democratic political systems and have been enticed by their trust in the longstanding political order into allowing the political class to introduce the EU without democratic affirmation (practically past the demos). As a result we are being governed by institutions (Commission, ECB) that are not subject to democratic control and whose power cannot be taken away from them by the electorate. Unsurprisingly, the corridors of Brussels have become a power club reserved for politicians and their corporate and other moneyed clients (special interests). This anti-democratic coup is unacceptable, irrespective of how vital democratic traditions in Europe may still remain compared to the democratic deficits of other countries, regions or epochs.

Second, yes, the membership in the EU involves repression and bullies winning over underdogs. But it's not always quite clear who will win - Visegrád just won a battle, and it was viewed as an underdog. Moreover, the fact that the top dogs are more likely to win than the underdogs is a law of Nature, not just the EU. We can't really change *that*.

Ad 2:  A pluralistic and democratic political order is tasked with the challenge to avoid the abuse or maldevelopment of power. The fact that the structure of political power is always perfectible does not justify indifference, even more, acceptance of a highly defective state of affairs (see ad 1).

The design of the EU is fundamentally defective. The flawed construct is bound to create destructive and dangerous imbalances within the Union (including Germany's perennial excessive and illegal but unpunished external surplus) and pit European country against European country thus creating frictions and animosities that would not have otherwise arisen in Europe. The EU takes sovereignty away from the peoples of Europa and replaces it with the fiat of unelected technocrats and a constitution that takes away from governments the ability to pursue responsible fiscal policies, instead forcing them to engage in pro-cyclical economic measures that provoke, enhance and prolong economic downturns and cause untold economic damage and personal misery. By forcing a foreign currency (the Euro) on previously sovereign currency issuers, the membership countries become dependent on financial markets and European bureaucrats (both of which was not the case before).

In 1938, Czechoslovakia was castrated and broken to pieces - Nazi Germany was given a piece - after a conference in Munich where the Czechoslovak representatives didn't participate at all. Who participated? Well, four nations - Germany, France, Britain, Italy. The Munich Group or Munich Four. If you look at the list, you will notice that it happens to be the list of 4 most powerful countries in Western Europe. And there was no EU at that time. But the countries that could do such decisions were the same. So you can't blame everything on the EU. Something is a matter of common sense. More powerful entities are more likely to impose their will on the less powerful ones. That fact is true even in the EU relationship with countries outside the EU.

The right response to the fact that bullies sometimes win over underdogs is to be strong, not to leave the EU.

I venture to argue that to be strong requires a clear perception of the unacceptably flawed nature of the anti-European EU. I lack the competence to be able to judge what Czechia should do ( — and Czechia has wisely not given up currency sovereignty, which makes a difference). But if states like Czechia, Poland, Hungary — who embody, live and defend more good European traditions than the decadent heavies like Germany or France — are consistently strong, as you demand of them, this will elicit illegitimate pressure from the powerful states in the EU, create additional friction and eventually lead to the dissolution of the sick EU-Leviathan. What concessions you get from the EU are owing to its weakness (resulting from its contradictory character) and not to a spirit of fairness and evenness in dealing with its member states. The EU is ultimately an attempt of the political elites of Europe to circumvent democracy, but it is also dangerous due to the economic irrationality built into it.

Incidentally, there will always be people in the perceived underdog countries that will be bought - either by explicit money i.e. subsidies in the EU or some "chance that such money and influence could flow" - by the bullies. So our prime minister Babiš boasts about the canceled quotas, he teamed up with V4, and so on. He presents himself as a big warrior against migration in Czechia etc. But he gave an interview to Le Figaro where he said somewhat different things. Europe should look like Asterix and Obelix, because those were French and all non-French nations suck, and he - Babiš - is a big warrior against far right parties such as SPD in Czechia. Holy cow. So in Czechia, he's clearly nurturing the picture that he's their ally but in France, he's their archenemy?

What to do with such people? But such people will always exist, even if we're outside the EU or even if the EU doesn't exist at all. The stronger is the indication that the likes of France want to bully us or someone else, the more collaborationists they will induce in countries like mine. That's how it always works, too - it's common sense that has nothing to do with the EU. For example, after the Munich treaty mentioned above, the collaborationists with the Nazis started to feel strong in Czechia, too - for obvious reason. Their actual ally, Nazi Germany, just managed to steal 1/3 of the territory from the democratic government in Prague. So they rejoiced and tried to extend that power, which they did, of course, because in March 1939, the whole country was occupied. And there was no Fourth Reich then (the EU), although, one must admit, there was the Third Reich which was somewhat analogous. ;-)

Stock Analysis by Machine

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Ich habe auf diesen mir per Link zugespielten Artikel wie folgt kommentiert:

Mich wundert, dass man überhaupt erst jetzt darauf kommt, die automatisierungsfähigen Abläufe der Analyse Maschinen zu überlassen. Das stellt aber nicht nur hohe Ansprüche an die Parametrisierung und die Qualitätskontrolle durch den Menschen; solange der Artikel nicht verrät, worin die übrigen 25 % bestehen, ist er nicht sonderlich aufschlussreich. Um es im Jargon des Fußballs zu sagen: Bayern München gewinnt die meisten Spiele, die Meisterschaft und andere Titel nicht, weil das Team 50 % oder auch nur 25 % besser ist als die meisten gegnerischen Mannschaften; die Bayernspieler sind 2-5 % besser als die Gegner, und dieser marginale Vorsprung macht den Unterschied. Da es nicht viele Spieler mit diesem Margenvorsprung gibt, kosten die auch einen Haufen Geld ... aber ich schweife ab.

I commented on an article suggesting that 75 % of a stock analysis can be accomplished by machines. I argue that the article is not particularly insightful, unless it specifies, which it does not, what human activities the remaining 25 % consist of. In fact, I am surprised that efforts at automation come so late. There is much room for automated data processing and standard analytic computation. However, this leaves a pivotal role for sophisticated human intervention in terms of parameterisation, quality control and other indispensable measures depending on human discretion and assessment. 25 % is a huge margin, which I tried to illustrated with an example from the world of football: Bayern Munich are not 50% or even 25 % better than most opponents; if they were, they would win 10:0 or more almost every time they play. Bayern are 2-5 % better than their opponents most of the time. It is very hard to get to that slime margin of superiority, i.e. it is hard to find players commanding this slight advantage, which is why the best players are making so much money.

Friday 29 June 2018

EU's Europe — A Drama of Bullies versus Underdogs

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I offered the below comment on this article here.

You fear the anti-democratic forces in your country? What could be more anti-democratic than the EU? You seem to be inclined toward staying in the EU out of fear that the EU will retaliate upon your country for leaving the "club". I dare not judge the economic wisdom of bowing to this threat, but it is an indubitable sign that membership is based on repression and that this Europe is all about bullies versus underdogs.


See also here and here.

Wednesday 27 June 2018

Backwardness

 
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Continued from here.

[Bear with me, the text is a bit repetitive, I have written it spontaneously, while trying to assure myself of the correctness of my thinking.]

Maybe this is only semantics: I refuse to accept the idea that there are advantages to being backward (relative to not being backward). Backwardness is by definition disadvantageous. It is not an advantage to be poor, less healthy, to live a shorter live etc. There are advantages of being able to develop and catch up efficiently, but these advantages are not caused or effected by being backward, but rather by becoming more developed. Is it an advantage to have a very low per capital income, low levels of productivity? Is it an advantage to be so poor as to show promise for strong growth some time in the future? My answer is no. It is the ability to climb out of poverty/backwardness that is advantageous — not poverty or backwardness per se. The elements making for progress are themselves not features of backwardness, but belong to the arsenal of development, progress, improvement that is not available from backwardness.

So it is the ability to copy or partake in other ways in the features of more advanced stages of development that are advantageous. A country can be as backward as it likes, it will not draw any advantage from that, to the contrary. The advantage of being able to catch up is derived (or "imported", if you like) from more mature stages of development.

Is it better to be poor (backward) today than 500 years ago? Perhaps the right answer is: yes, because backward countries are liable to catch up faster (and have more access to the joys/benefits of the more developed world) today than in earlier times. But again, that does not make backwardness advantageous or the cause of substantial progress.

You write: "Can you expand on your point that ‘it is always better to be advanced in terms of economic development rather than backward’? Better in what way? By the simple virtue of being wealthier already, or in terms of growth potential?"

I would argue that a country on an advanced level of development (as opposed to a backward one) will be wealthier and have a sounder growth path, and combine both to reinforce one another. In fact, this is a possible definition of development, of being developed as a opposed to being backward.

You write:

"Those latecomer countries that have caught up economically and joined the rich country club surely show that in such cases, they were able to exploit the advantages of backwardness. Does this not make your first point context-dependent?"

These countries have not enjoyed the advantages of backwardness, they have enjoyed the advantages of the developed world, and have learned to make use of them to be able to escape from backwardness. The drivers of this escape are elements from the modern advanced world: technology, know-how, mores, experiences, proven practices of the developed world.

At the risk of becoming excessively repetitive: no one catches up "like hell" because they are backward; they catch up because they have found ways to partake in features that make advanced countries advanced: appropriately modern business practices, legal techniques, forms of business organisation, technological progress etc.

Tuesday 26 June 2018

Backwardness and Exports

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My comment here:

(1) I don't like the third paragraph as the author seems to suggest that there is a net cost in moving first and a net benefit of being backward. Maybe I am misconstruing his wording. At any rate, I think, it is one thing to be backward (with the enormous costs associated with this) and another being in a position to take advantage of the achievements of first movers (saving costs and gaining benefits compared to reinventing the wheel). Also, the costs of moving first will almost certainly be lower than the costs of being backward and entail benefits clearly surpassing costs (early and long-lasting wealth). In short: it is always better to be advanced in terms of economic development rather than backward.

Of course, the author is right that backward nations ought to optimise the follower's advantage (saving the costs of reinventing the wheel).

(2) Like the previous post, this post encourages me to think that exports play a pivotal role in successful development, a fact that belies the weird categorical MMT-proposition "imports = benefits", "exports = costs". It is wrong to dichotomise exports and imports as they are inextricably interlinked. Both involve benefits and costs.

See also here and here

Continued here.

Friday 22 June 2018

Hayek in Nuce

 
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This is my comment on a post introducing Hayek:
You write: “Like it or not, modern capitalist economies are all mixed economies with interventionist states.”

Excellent point. I refused to see it that way for a long time, and only oversight of this fundamental truth could make me an admirer of Hayek’s. Not much of substance remains of Hayek once one understands his neoliberal dogmatism which is based on the purported dichotomy of a pure market economy and socialism or a tendency toward socialism of immediate destructiveness. (You are either doing what the pure market economy demands or you are on the fast track to socialism, an attitude very pronounced in The Road to Serfdom.)

The best part of his work concerns the role of handling knowledge in an economy.

http://quaesivi.blogspot.com/2018/03/if-equilibrium-economics-is-wrong-why.html

His monetary theory is deficient in that he does not understand that any “free market in currencies” including the Gold Standard requires massive political intervention—and will not, as Hayek believes, deliver us of the need to engage in politics; his political theory tends toward the anti-democratic, while in my analysis of freedom democracy is one of the indispensable core features of liberty ( for which reason I consider him not a voice of liberty as much as he writes about her). His legal theory is also hollow insinuating the existence of quasi-Platonic constants of a rule of law that ensures perfect markets; unsurprisingly one never gets to grasp these miraculous super-rules when reading his “Law, Legislation and Liberty”; they remain an unsubstantiated promise. He does not understand that markets are fundamentally political because they require the constant working out of legal and other rules; and this working out is a thoroughly political process. Instead he expects the application of certain legal rules to depoliticised society and turn it into a purportedly unpolitical, mysteriously market-driven event.

Lastly, Hayek, the great theoretician of spontaneous order is hindered by his liberal dogmatism to extend the concept of a spontaneous order to the state, politics and society at large. Such extension would have made him understand that a free society is one of indeterminate outcomes and does not terminate in any specific preconceived vision of it, such as proposed by classical liberalism.

I have documented my criticism of Hayek in a series of posts, starting with this one:
http://quaesivi.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-paradox-of-freedom-1-austrian.html

(2) Global Warming Zealots Refuting Their Core Tenet

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Fortgesetzt von hier. English here.

III.


Auch ein anderer glühender Verfechter der Theorie von der katastrophalen anthropogenen Erderwärmung, Michael Mann, schießt ein fatales Eigentor beim Versuch zu beweisen, dass, CO2 Treiber des Klimawandels sei.

Michael Manns Name ist inzwischen untrennbar mit dem "Hockey Stick" verbunden,  einer retuschierten Temperaturkurve, in der er die Temperaturen vor der industriellen Ära künstlich verringert und glättet, um den ebenfalls retuschierten Anstieg der Temperaturen im Zeitalter der Industrialisierung zu dramatisieren. Dabei wechselt er ab dem Jahr 1902 von Daten, die aus Kerneisbohrungen gewonnen wurden, zu Werten, die aus Messstationen stammen. Und just dieser Übergang geht einher mit einer dramatischen Aufsteilung des „Eishockeyschlägers“. 


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Nun muss man dazu sagen, dass Daten, die von den Messstationen geliefert werden, zum einen aus einer Reihe von Gründen in ihrer originalen Aussage schon stark verfälscht sind (Wärmeinseleffekt, unausgewogene Verteilung über den Erdball, hauptsächlich nördliche Hemisphäre und Aussparung der Ozeane etc.)  und zum anderen obendrein noch nachträglich im Sinne eben des „Eishockeyschlägers“ abgewandelt werden.

Was uns die Physik über CO2 lehrt, schließt aber eine derartige plötzliche Aufsteilung aus. Die Fähigkeit von CO2 LWIR (langwellige Infrarotstrahlung) zu absorbieren, unterliegt einer logarithmischen Abnahme, d. h. sie nimmt umso stärker ab, je höher die Sättigung der Atmosphäre mit CO2 ist. Also gerade das Gegenteil von dem, was Michael Mann behauptet ist der Fall.

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Zurück zum Hockey Stick, dem unwahrhaftigen Emblem des Klimaalarmismus. Wie All Gore widerlegt auch Michael Mann sich selbst mit dem von ihm beweiseshalber vorgelegten Temperaturverlauf.

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Die Temperaturspitzen vor dem Erscheinen der industrialisierten Welt sind höher als das gegenwärtige Temperaturniveau, wie wir das schon bei Al Gores Selbstwiderlegung beobachten konnten. 
Zwischen dem Jahr 1000 und dem Anbruch des Industriezeitalters – der Zeitraum, den Manns Eishockeyschläger abbildet – bewegt sich das Niveau der atmosphärischen CO2-Konzentration in einer Spanne zwischen 275 und 285 ppm und stellt somit praktisch eine Konstante dar.

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Im Verlauf dieser 1,000 Jahre unterliegt aber die Temperatur deutlichen Schwankungen (siehe den Mannschen Eishockeyschläger im unteren Schaubild). Eine Konstante (CO-Konzentration) kann aber keine Variationen in der abhängigen Variablen (Temperatur) bewirken. Also kann CO2 nicht ursächlich sein für die Temperaturschwankungen, die im Verlauf der vom Eishockeyschläger abgebildeten 1000 Jahre auftreten.


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(1) Global Warming Zealots Refuting Their Core Tenet

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English here and here.

I.

In meinem Post The Natural Climate Hammer — Bulk-Earth-Resonance habe ich eine Theorie vorgestellt, die zu erklären versucht, was das vorherrschende Paradigma der katastrophalen anthropogenen Erderwärmung nicht zu erklären vermag: echte Klimaveränderungen von signifikantem Ausmaß. In seiner Erdmassenresonanztheorie stellt Voisin die Hypothese auf, dass Veränderungen in der Erdumlaufbahn die Wirkstärke der auf die Erde einwirkenden Gravitationskräfte variieren, wodurch Resonanzeffekte am Erdkörper ausgelöst werden, die so stark sein können, dass die Abgabe der im Erdkern gespeicherten Wärmenergie vor allem durch unterseeischen Vulkanismus massiv zunimmt und die Erdtemperatur aufgrund der sie erwärmenden Ozeane steigt. Dieses Phänomen ist von einer Stärke, die ausreicht, um sehr große und (nach Maßstäben geologischer Zeit) plötzliche Klimaschwankungen zu verursachen. Diese Ursache des sich über lange Zeiträume abspielenden Klimawandels wird vor allem im Verlaufe darin eingepasster kleinerer Zeiträume und Zyklen von weiteren natürlichen Ursachen überlagert. Warum CO2 hierbei keine Rolle spielt und schon gar nicht als Ursache der Klimaerwärmung fungieren kann, erklärt der folgende Abschnitt II.

II.

Das von Al Gore in seinem Film An Inconvenient Truth vorgestellte Schaubild zeigt über einen Zeitraum von 650,000 Jahren (oben in rot) die CO2-Konzentration in der Atmosphäre und (darunter in weiß) den Temperaturverlauf auf der Erde. Al Gore und seinen Anhängern entgehen jedoch zweierlei Tatsachen, die die von ihm behauptete Ursächlichkeit der CO2-Konzentration für klimatische Temperaturentwicklungen widerlegen.


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1. Die Temperaturspitzen der letzten 650,000 Jahre liegen allesamt über dem heutigen Temperaturniveau, wohingegen die atmosphärische CO2-Konzentration, wie Gore ausdrücklich betont, deutlich unterhalb dem heutigen Konzentrationsniveau liegt. Obwohl die CO-Konzentration in den letzten Dekaden stark angestiegen ist, liegt das Temperaturniveau unterhalb der bei viel niedrigeren Konzentrationswerten entstandenen historischen Spitzen.

2. Al Gore hat die Kurve so stark und geschickt gestaut, sodass nicht mehr zu erkennen ist, dass die CO2-Konzentration der Temperaturentwicklung folgt – und zwar mit einer Verzögerung von 800 bis 1,500 Jahren. Sollte CO2 tatsächlich die Ursache für Temperaturerhöhungen sein, müsst es als Ursache eben dem ausgelösten Effekt vorausgehen, was klarerweise nicht der Fall ist. 

Fortgesetzt hier.

Wednesday 20 June 2018

Ceterum Censeo EU Esse Delendam — TPP, TTIP, and EU

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Nick Johnson quotes Michael Hudson, who writes:

The recently proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and its European counterpart, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), would compel governments to relinquish these powers [to pursue socially responsible policies mandated and supervised by the electorate] to corporate lawyers and referees appointed by Wall Street, the City of London, Frankfurt and other financial centers.

My reply:

Ceterum censeo EU (Unionem Europaeam) esse delendam: Those complaining about TPP and TTIP should acknowledge that the EU is an even larger scheme to “compel governments to relinquish” powers given to them to serve the interests of those that have lend them power via democratic elections. The electorate should be able to retract the power politicians borrow from them – yet it is this vital capacity of a democratic people that the EU obstructs with the greatest efficiency.

Monday 18 June 2018

Prowling Messi


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I used to be a good soccer player, but I am a lousy analyst of the game, I think. I made fun of Jogi Löw before the 2014 championship predicting a German disaster, but the "Mannschaft" returned home from Brazil world champion.

I have always criticised Lionel Messi for running comfortably less than any other elite attackers, averaging just less than 5 miles per 90 minutes. But in this interesting article we are told that walking makes Messi more efficient and that means more dangerous to his opponents:

“Can we say Messi gets a lot of his space by not chasing the play? Yes, that’s precisely what our research shows.” 

Though,

Messi never really walks; he prowls.

Euro (17) — EU Can Work Only as a Nation State But Is Unable to Become One

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English version below / englische Version unten

Der Euro ist dem Untergang geweiht. Das Konstrukt ist in seiner derzeitigen Verfassung defekt. Zugleich liegt die Lösung, mit der sich seine Defekte beheben ließen, einfach nicht im Bereich des Möglichen: eine Fiskalunion. Würde die EU ernsthafte Anstrengungen unternehmen, um eine Fiskalunion zu erzielen, würde bald erbitterte Rivalität und offene Feindseligkeit zwischen den Mitgliedsländern an die Oberfläche treten. Die Auseinandersetzungen um die Fleischtöpfe würden die anti-demokratische und unsoziale Fehlkonstruktion auseinander reißen. Jeder Ernst gemeinte Versuch, einen Bundesstaat ins Leben zu rufen, würde einen Wechsel der politisch dominanten Eliten zur Folge haben; nationalstaatlich orientierte Eliten würden die derzeit vorherrschenden "globalistischen" Eliten verdrängen, schwer beschädigen oder in ihrem Sinne umkrempeln.

Der große Irrtum der EU-Ära besteht in der Annahme, dass der Nationalstaat sein Verfallsdatum überschritten habe, wie einer seiner Apologeten in Le Monde schreibt:

L’Etat nation est un anachronisme.


Nein, der Nationalstaat ist kein Anachronismus. Und weil dem eben so ist, werden EU und Euro sterben müssen.

Fazit: EU und Euro basieren auf der Vorstellung, dass der Nationalstaat abstirbt (und überwunden werden sollte), während sie tatsächlich nur von Erfolg gekrönt sein können, wenn die EU sich zum Nationalstaat entwickeln würde. In Wirklichkeit ist die EU nur ein Vorwand, bestimmte Interessen hinter dem Rücken der Bevölkerung durchzusetzen. Ein natürliches Zusammenwachsen der Mitgliedsstaaten wird weder angestrebt, noch ist es notwendig, noch möglich.

xxx

The Euro is doomed. The regime in its present form is dysfunctional, while the solution to its shortcomings is unattainable: a fiscal union. If the EU attempted a fiscal union, fierce rivalry, even outright enmity among the member states would quickly surface, in fact, explode, tearing the anti-democratic and anti-social Fehlkonstruktion (flawed design) apart. Any attempt at federation would precipitated what is already going on more or less under the surface: a regime change in terms of prevalent elites — political forces that support the nation state would achieve prevalence over the present "globalist" establishment. 

The great error of the EU-era is that the nation state is beyond its expiry date, as one of its apologists writes in Le Monde: 

L’Etat nation est un anachronisme.

Source.

No, it is not. And, therefore, the EU and the Euro will die.

In sum:

The tragedy of the EU and the Euro is that they are premised on the withering away of the nation state, while they can only succeed to the extent that the EU becomes a genuine nation state. In actuality the EU is a pretext to enforce particular interest behind the back of the European populations. The elites do not seriously endeavour to bring about a natural fusion of the member states, nor is this necessary or possible.

Sunday 17 June 2018

The Natural Climate Hammer — Bulk-Earth-Resonance

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Continued from here.


Erdmassenresonanz – der Klimahammer

Sehr grob und stark vereinfachend verstehe ich Voisins hier dargelegte Theorie so: Abhängig von Veränderungen der Erdumlaufbahn machen sich unterschiedlich starke und unterschiedlich häufige Resonanzeffekte an der Erdmasse bemerkbar. Simpel ausgedrückt, die Erde wird mehr oder weniger oft, mehr oder weniger lange und mehr oder weniger stark geschüttelt und so zum Vibrieren gebracht. Es sind diese Resonanzeffekte, die dazu führen, dass die im Erdinnern gespeicherte Wärme(energie) stärker oder weniger stark durch Vulkanismus (z. B. auch unter der Antarktis, Grönland oder anderen Landmassen, aber auch durch Vulkane am Meeresboden) austritt und so vor allem zur Erwärmung der Ozeane beiträgt. Bei der aufgrund dieser Prozesse frei werdenden Energie handelt sich um Größenordnungen, die ausreichen, wie ein Hammer auf das Klima zu wirken, sprich enorme Veränderungen in (geologisch) vergleichsweise kurzer Zeit zu bewirken. Voisin legt eine Hypothese zur Prüfung und ggf. zur Widerlegung vor, wonach sich in den letzten hunderttausenden von Jahren die einschneidenden Schwankungen des Temperaturniveaus auf der Erde, bei denen man von echten Klimaveränderungen sprechen darf, in charakteristischen Zyklen abgespielt haben, die sich wiederum mit Resonanzzyklen der Erdmasse decken.


Power-Hungry Merkel in Thrall to Greens Keeps Germany Backward

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Nur in Deutsch / available only in German.

Deutschland befindet sich in einem erbärmlichen und gefährlichen Zustand manischer Selbstbezogenheit. Während die Wissenschaft im Rest der Welt neue Erkenntnisse über das Klimasystem unseres Planeten gewinnt, werden in Deutschland die "wissenschaftlichen" Befunde von den politisch dominanten Kräften des Landes festgelegt. 

Tausende von seriösen Studien liegen inzwischen vor und es kommen immer mehr hinzu, die unverkennbar aufzeigen, dass die angeblich katastrophale anthropogene Klimaerwärmung (CAGW) durch empirische Befunde widerlegt wird, dass viele die CAGW unterstützende Studien auf Betrug und Fälschungen beruhen und, dass natürliche, nicht vom Menschen, geschweige denn von dessen Verbrauch fossiler Brennstoffe, verursachte Prozesse das Weltklima bestimmen und, dass CO2 bestenfalls eine geringe Rolle hierbei spielt. 

Es ist schon verdächtig, dass die deutsche veröffentliche Meinung davon so gut wie nicht Kenntnis nimmt, denn es sollte uns doch aufatmen lassen, dass die uns bedrückende Gefahr einer apokalyptischen Klimaerwärmung offenbar gar nicht so groß ist wie bisher angenommen.

Eine Propagandafunktionärin der DDR, daran gewöhnt, die jeweiligen Machthaber unter Aufbietung aller dazu erforderlichen Lügen zu legitimieren, verkörpert die Bundeskanzlerin den Verrat der politischen Klasse an der deutschen Bevölkerung. Seit geraumer Zeit arbeitet sie als Gehilfin der von den Grünen angeführten regressiven Linken – zynischer Weise in einer vorgeblich christlich-konservativen Partei, deren Grundwerte sie verachtet. 

Die von den Grünen angeführte regressive Linke beherrscht die deutsche Medienwelt ebenso wie den „deep state“, d. h. die sich im Hintergrund des Regierungsapparats und der Behörden als tatsächliche Entscheidungsträger der Politik betätigenden Beamte etc. 

Die Bundeskanzlerin interessiert sich ausschließlich für die Sicherung ihrer Macht, was sie zur Hörigen von Deutschlands grüner Junta macht, deren Wünsche sie erfüllt, um vom undemokratischen „deep state“ an der Spitze des Staats gehalten zu werden. Das erklärt, warum sie dem grünen Großprojekt der Zerstörung des Industriestandorts Deutschland (Atomaustieg, Energiewende, Angriff auf Kernindustrien wie Energie und Auto) und anderen grünen Manien wie der bedingungslosen Grenzöffnung eifrig willfahrt.

Inzwischen ist zu befürchten, dass jahrzehntelange ideologische Gehirnwäsche zu einer landesweiten Verblödung geführt hat, sodass die Menschen, ohne es zu wissen, ihre Fähigkeit und ihre Bereitschaft, wissenschaftliche Sachverhalte kritisch zu prüfen, eingetauscht haben gegen liturgische Gewohnheiten, mit denen sie dazu abgerichtet werden, grüne Propaganda reflexartig nachzubeten und immer tiefer zu verinnerlichen.


Während Deutschland hinterm Mond lebend noch immer das längst veraltete Goldene Kalb des angeblich durch anthropogene CO2-Emissionen verursachten Klimawandels anbetet, lenke ich im folgenden Beitrag ihre Aufmerksamkeit auf eine neue Theorie, die im Einklang steht mit dem sich immer stärker erhärtenden Befund, dass der Klimawandel natürliche Ursachen hat und keineswegs ein Unfall unserer Zivilisation ist.

Saturday 16 June 2018

More On Lies, Hypocrisy and Racism from Germany — Italy is a Net Contributor to the EU

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Continued from here.

For more on the facts click here: in German and in English.

The Eco-Driven Decline of Science and Knowledge of Nature in Germany — "Ökoverblödung"

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Excerpting from an article by Pierre Gosselin at NoTricksZone, Meterologist Jörg Kachelmann writes in the Hannoversche Allgemeine:
It’s truly a drama: Today 80 to 90 percent of the weather stories in the German online media are false information or often freely made-up nonsense. My science has become a hoard of anarchy.”
He adds:
The absence of knowledge about nature allows every nonsense to be printed — in order to generate clicks — yet not be recognized as such.”
So why has the German citizenry become so weather-disinformed?

Kach[el]mann points to the educational system, where children are allowed to bypass natural science classes at schools. He comments at HAZ:
It is breathtaking what only a few decades and the allowance to skip school subjects can do to a country that, at least in folksongs, was long familiar with storms.”
The source

Pierre Gosselin concludes this article thus:


I’d have to say that the situation is in fact as bad, or even worse, in many other countries. The lack of knowledge in natural sciences make a society highly vulnerable to abuse by elite classes.


To which I offer the following comment here:

Pierre, you are absolutely right, I hate to say. 

Paradoxically, environmentalism has contributed significantly to the loss of sound knowledge about nature.

I call this "Ökoverblödung": personal concern for and contact with nature (including her conscientious study in theory and practice) is replaced by politically correct liturgy, the constant regurgitation of green stereotypical myths.

Instituting a new cultural paradigm, the greens have actually managed to substitute their false folklore about "nature" for science and an approach to nature guided by a critical, discerning, and knowledgeable mind.

Hence: "The absence of knowledge about nature allows every nonsense to be printed — in order to generate clicks — yet not be recognized as such." That's what I call die "Abrichtung des politischen Konsumenten", "the conditioning of the political consumer", making, as you observantly write, "society highly vulnerable to abuse by elite classes".

To which Pierre Gosselin replied:

Moreover they are unwittingly accomplishing the opposite of what they promised: paradise. Quite like how it worked out with socialism and communism.

See also The Epitome of Engineering Stupidity, and Überlegungen zur Abrichtung des politischen Konsumenten — der deutsche Öko-Wahn.

Wednesday 13 June 2018

German Racism — The Chauvinism Behind the Europhile Veneer

 
Image credit. German hypocrisy abounds, expressing contempt for fellow Europeans via populist sterotypes.


See English summary below / englische Zusammenfassung unten


Die Deutschen fühlen sich als die Herren von Europa. Abweichende Vorstellungen über Qualität, Nutzen und Entwicklung der undemokratischen und unsozialen "Gemeinschaft" straft man mit rassistischen Tiraden ab, wie ich schon im zweisprachigen Post „Say No to Racism“geschrieben habe: 

Unsere Mit-Europäer, so etwa die Brexit-Briten und die Griechen, werden als verachtenswert faul und gaunerisch angesehen. Man stelle sich vor, Schwarze wären Ziel derartiger Beleidigungen.
Fellow Europeans are considered despicably lazy and crookish bastards, such as the brexiting English and the Greeks. Imagine blacks were the targets of the same kind of abuse.

DER SPIEGEL tut sich als Sprachrohr des staatlich geprüften deutschen Populismus hervor: Lesen Sie hier mehr, wahlweise englisch oder deutsch.

Der staatlich verordnete Hass der Deutschen auf alles, was vom politisch korrekten Gleichschaltungskanon abweicht, tut sein Abstumpfungswerk.

Unter einer dünnen Schicht von Europa-Frömmelei liegt blanker Chauvinismus verborgen.

Die einzige Möglichkeit, der EU eine funktionierende Wirtschaft zu sichern, nämlich die Region in einen Nationalstaat mit einheitlicher Wirtschafts-, Geld- und Fiskalpolitik zu verwandeln, scheitert an nationalen populistisch-rassistischen Ressentiments, wie sie DER SPIEGEL mit Inbrunst schürt.

English summary:

Germans feel like they were the masters of undemocratic and anti-social Europe. Anyone who dares to espouse ideas differing from the German stance concerning the quality, the usefulness and the (actual and desirable) development of Europe is punished with racist tirades, as I have pointed out before in „Say No to Racism“.

DER SPIEGEL acts as the speaking trumpet of governmentally ordained populism (the most egregious populists, German government parties, arrogate the right to themselves to call their opponents populists; populism is in Germany synonymous with "opposing the ruling populists".) Read more alternatively in German or English here.

Germans are considerably desensitised with regard to how they speak of their fellow Europeans (or indeed anyone not in sync with the German canon of political correctness).

Hidden under a thin layer of Europhile sanctimony lies sheer chauvinism.

Europe will only work when it becomes what it purports to leave behind — the national state. But this option is ruled out by the kind of nationally egotistical, populist and racist resentment that DER SPIEGEL so relishes to stir up.

Tuesday 12 June 2018

A Parochial Madness

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Angela Merkel ... think[s] the climate is going to be saved if Germany shuts down 1/20 of what China and India are going to add [in terms of coal use].
The source.

Could it be that Merkel understands that she is far more dependent on the Greens' (deep state and parastate manipulatoty) powers than on the constitutional call to protect the vital interests of the German people and their nation?

A Passion for Economics

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I left the below comment at this blog.

Thanks for this fascinating biographical sketch. I don’t know your personal circumstances and ambitions; at any rate, your wonderful blog proves to me that you’ve already earned your Ph.D. I thoroughly enjoy—and indeed envy— your excellent writing as well as the conciseness and precision with which you get to the essential aspects of a topic. 

You face the subject of economics in its true complexity, rather than toying around in a fantasy world of abstract models. There is a price you must pay for that, though. Einstein said economics was too difficult for him. He was right, but then it is too difficult—a fortiori—for you and me. The subject surpasses our means of doing it justice. For that reason honest economists will experience recurrent frustration. All the more, the qualities that you bring to the challenge are of the essence if we are to make progress. Perseverance, humility, open-mindedness, breadth of interest. 

I wish many more readers would find access to your blog; the broad range of pivotal economic issues that you cover so well is nutritious food for the “true student”, a capacity that covers beginners no less than the seasoned expert.

I still have my well-worn and dusty copy of Ben Fine’s “Marx’s Capital” (Macmillan Studies in Economics), a reprint of 1982 which I read at about that time. 80 pages then from cover to cover. (The author doesn’t seem to age.)

Sunday 10 June 2018

Atmospheric CO2 Following Temperature


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From a comment I submitted here:

IPCC (2007): 

“Atmospheric CO2 follows temperature changes in Antarctica with a lag of some hundreds of years.”

Isn’t that particularly embarrassing considering that Antarctica seems to provide the perfect experimental set up to test the efficacy of CO2?

“Antarctica is by far the best natural control for measuring the impact of CO2 on atmospheric temperature. There are no cities, no roads, no buildings, no lakes and the air is extremely dry and cold. Antarctica is a large area of almost uniform “albedo” or reflectivity, naturally controlling for any distortion caused by the terrain. The major greenhouse gas over Antarctica is CO2, and its temperature is close to the -80°C which is close to the temperature absorbed by CO2 in the 13 & 18µ band of LWIR. Antarctica is like a giant petri dish for climate research.

What do you get when you control for water vapor and the Urban Heat Island Effect? Temperatures have actually FALLEN since 1979 in Antarctica. In fact, temperatures are actually flat over the past 50 years. CO2 has increased from 310 ppm in 1955 to 400 ppm today, and its impact on temperatures in Antarctica is immeasurable. When the impact of CO2 is isolated, and all other significant factors are controlled for, CO2 has no measurable impact on atmospheric temperatures. Antarctica temperature data proves it beyond any reasonable doubt.”

Euro (16) — Adam Smith Opposed to EU

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From a comment I made here

Writes Adam Smith:
 
“People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices…though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies; much less to render them necessary” (Book I, Ch. 10, S.82).

I suppose, this would have made Adam Smith, who certainly was a broad-minded thinker and no doctrinaire, an opponent of the EU.

“The viciously anti-democratic nature of the EU is quite easy to explain: (1) the European Commission, despite being unelected, is the executive of the EU and has the sole right to propose legislation. This European Commission proposes and formulates legislation largely in secret with committees filled with big businesses and corporate interests …” 

For more see here and here and here.

Tuesday 5 June 2018

1000th Post — Euro (15) — EU Is Viciously Anti-Democratic

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The viciously anti-democratic nature of the EU is quite easy to explain: (1) the European Commission, despite being unelected, is the executive of the EU and has the sole right to propose legislation. This European Commission proposes and formulates legislation largely in secret with committees filled with big businesses and corporate interests.

(2) even though the European Commission members are proposed by member EU governments, once the Commission members are appointed they become independent and not accountable to the people or capable of being removed by democratic election.

(3) the European Parliament cannot even propose legislation.

(4) once something becomes a European law, only the unelected European Commission has the sole right to repeal or change that legislation.

(5) even though, technically, the EU parliament has the power to dismiss the Commission by a two thirds majority vote, the parliament still has no power at all to force a new Commission to change or adopt different policies.

The source


Meine freie Übersetzung:

Der äußerst anti-demokratische Charakter der EU ist leicht zu erklären: (1) Die Europäische Kommission, wiewohl nicht gewählt, ist die Exekutive der EU und besitzt das alleinige Recht, Gesetze vorzuschlagen. Die Europäische Kommission formuliert und legt Gesetze größtenteils im Geheimen und in Komitees vor, in denen große Unternehmen und andere Interessenvertreter diverser Industrien vertreten sind.

(2) Zwar werden die Mitglieder der Europäischen Kommission von den Regierungen der Mitgliedsstaaten vorgeschlagen, sind diese Personen jedoch zu Mitgliedern der Kommission ernannt,  erhalten sie den Status der Unabhängigkeit, sie sind der Bevölkerung nicht rechenschaftspflichtig und können nicht aufgrund demokratischer Wahlen aus ihrem Amt entfernt werden.

(3) Das Europäische Parlament hat nicht einmal das Recht, Gesetze vorzuschlagen.

(4) Ist ein europäisches Gesetz erst einmal in Kraft getreten, so liegt das alleinige Recht, dieses Gesetz zu widerrufen oder abzuwandeln bei der ungewählten [keiner demokratischen Kontrolle unterliegenden] Europäischen Kommission.

(5) Wiewohl das Europäische Parlament streng genommen das Recht besitzt, die Kommission mit einer Zweidrittelmehrheit abzusetzen, steht es dennoch nicht in seiner Macht, eine neue Kommission dazu zu zwingen, andere oder veränderte Maßnahmen durchzuführen.

Siehe auch hier, warum die Einführung der EU in meinen Augen der Anfang vom Ende der Demokratie in Europa war. 


I just noticed, this is the 1000th post since I have started Quesivi at then end of 2015 (18th November: "Government Spending Not Limited by Ability to Tax or Borrow - On MMT (1)")
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Gerade ist es mir aufgefallen, dies ist der 1000ste Post, den ich seit Start meines Blogs Quaesivi Ende 2015 veröffentlicht habe (18. November: "Government Spending Not Limited by Ability to Tax or Borrow - On MMT (1)")