A 865 Point Swing, Short Covering, and Normality

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I am intrigued by the massive volatility associated with the recent lapse into bull market territory. This is an exciting time to follow the goings when markets appear to be involved in a struggle that might descide between (1) a not so dramatic development reflecting slower economic growth and (2) a bearish retreat that will come either in a spurt or linger on for rather a long period.

Writes Michael Snyder:

An 865 point swing in less than two hours is not “normal”.

In fact, it is about as far from “normal” as you can get.

Let’s talk about short covering for a moment. During huge market downturns, speculators often try to make a lot of money very rapidly by shorting stocks. But if momentum suddenly shifts, those short sellers can be caught with their pants down and the consequences can be quite dramatic. The following comes from Marketwatch…

Indeed, market veterans warn that massive, one-day rallies are often more characteristic of downturns, occurring as selloffs lead to significantly oversold technical conditions that leave markets ripe for short covering only to give way to renewed selling once the frenzy of forced buying is exhausted. Investors who short a stock are essentially betting that its price will fall by first borrowing the shares, but those traders can be forced to buy shares back if prices suddenly swing higher, which, in turn, can amplify price swings.

In addition, it appears that on Thursday there was more of the “forced pension rebalancing” that Zero Hedge has been talking about…

It certainly has the smell of a massive pension reallocation as the moment stocks started to surge, bonds were dumped…

No stock market crash in U.S. history has ever gone in a straight line. There are always huge ups and downs during every market crash, and this market crash is no exception.

Ultimately, there is no way that you can possibly interpret the behavior of the market in recent days as “healthy”…