Fed's Defensive Rate Cut Sign of Recession — Defensive Zinssenkung verrät bevorstehende Rezession

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Der verräterischste Vorbote für eine Rezession ist nicht das Anziehen des Leitzins, sondern die erste Leitzinssenkung nach einer längeren Phase, in der die Zinsen wieder gestiegen sind/angehoben wurden.

Over the weekend, we pointed out a concerning statistic: it's not the rate hikes that stifle economic growth and send stocks sliding that traditionally telegraph the start of a recession - it's the first rate cut following a tightening cycle that is usually the trigger. Case in point: the last three recessions were all preceded with the Fed cutting, i.e., the Fed loosened policy within three months before the previous three recessions, cutting by 0.25% in 1991, 1.5% in 2001 and 0.5% in 2007.

Source/Quelle.